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2024 Election Insurance Impact

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In the 2020 election Biden received $5.5 million compared to Trump’s $4.6 million from insurance industry political action committees (PACs) according to the Center for Responsive Politics (CRP). For the house and senate races the insurance industry PACs contributed $25 million split 54% to Republicans and 46% to Democrats. Healthcare ranked as a key issue for over 60% of voters in the 2022 midterm election according to Pew Research. Here are the healthcare policy issues that could determine the 2024 election insurance impact and the next four years of healthcare reform.

Reproductive Rights

In the 2022 midterms 70% of Pew Research respondents called the Supreme Court overturning of Roe v Wade an important factor or the single most important factor in the election, and voters came out in force to back pro-choice candidates. The law and policy differences between states is complicating care for the at-risk patient population and creating delays that can make the final costs higher per patient. Missouri is highly restrictive on reproductive care and its residents are seeking help in Illinois where most hospitals cannot provide financial assistance for out-of-state residents. Those same hospitals could be on the hook for those costs. As voters seek a balance between two extremes, Republican candidates with a moderate stance on abortion may have some advantage at the polls.

Entitlement Programs

By the year 2060, over 90 million people will be eligible for Medicare coverage – thirty million more than those who qualified in 2020. In the 2022 midterms 25% of those surveyed by AARP cited threats to Social Security and Medicare as a top issue. Some polls have shown as many as 70% of Americans supporting the idea of “Medicare for all.”

“It’s the most powerful kitchen table issue there is,says Leslie Dach, Executive Chair of a health advocacy group. “The only place it’s partisan is in Washington, D.C. Everybody in America worries about getting sick, and how they’re going to pay for it.” Republican calls to repeal and replace Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act for the past decade have not done well with the electorate. Voters understand how complicated replacing a program that gives 40 million Americans health insurance is, and balk at candidates that threaten to take it away or reduce support.

Voters also like the Inflation Reduction Act that allows Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. It gives their needs an even stronger voice and will add to the 2024 election insurance impact.
The differences between candidates is stark on these issues. Changes in healthcare policies can influence the demand for health insurance products and impact the profitability of health insurance providers. Predicting the 2024 election insurance impact should make it an interesting year….

Interested in hiring an Actuary? Contact Smith Hanley Associates’ Actuarial Science Executive Recruiter, Rory Hauser at rhauser@smithhanley.com

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